Sunday, April 27, 2008

Sweet November for the Dems(or not?)

The race for the Democratic nomination is getting interesting, as is the subsequent drama for the White House, post the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd.

Both parties are trying to spin it positively, with Hillary proclaiming it as a sign that the big states, and the 'core Democrats', sway to her beat, while BHO is tom tomming the close margin as a sign that he made inroads into her groups.

Meanwhile, McCain and FOX news are probably quietly chuckling to themselves.

Mathematically, it seems that Hillary is pretty far behind now, and unless some major shake up happens at the super delegates convention. To me, the more interesting question seems to center around the question raised (although for obvious reasons) by the Clinton campaign: with all the momentum and goodwill, why cant BHO close the deal? Despite outspending Hillary by a large margin in PA, he still couldnt come up trumps? Has the pastor controversy and the elitism charge really hit him with the 'working class whites' and older folks?

I dont think so.

Its not being widely reported, at least on MSNBC and CNN (with latter having been dubbed the Clinton News Network in the late 90's), but the PA Democratic primary was one in which independents were not allowed to vote. And therein lies the rub: as BHO relies heavily on the independents and first timers to win.

Since Indiana and NC allow independents, BHO, in all probability should be able to close the deal out by the NC primary.

What does this mean for the White House race though? If BHO is the nominee (and Clinton not the Veep -- which is a possibility though), will his campaign exclusively rely on these independents to pull him through? This would be fraught with risk, as there is a chance that Democrat core, having supported Hillary faithfully, stay at home or turn out for McCain ( this is very unlikely though)

The bigger fear is that these first time voters might not turn out to be resilient as BHO would hope. The GOP machinery hasnt gotten to him as yet, but when they can, they can make an issue out of anything. The Dems would know, as with Al Gore and the Internet/ Gore Vidal issue, or with Kerry and the Swift Boat story. BHO has proven to be able at deflecting attacks on him (and he can always play the victim card better than most), but its a huge risk. A couple of weeks of sustained finger pointing is all it could take to shake up his voter base.

Which is why the Hillary - BHO combination seems so appealing. On one hand you get the frontrunner, the people's choice as the presidential nominee, the 'symbol of hope for the future and change'. You also get a seasoned campaigner, who can fight the GOP at their game, and guarantee the Democratic core.

Which is why the recent somewhat concilatory statements between the two camps, and the non-personal attacks (although the folks in the campaigns keep sniping) are interesting. Big pressure from the Gang of 4 (the Democratic Party leaders - Dean, Pelosi, Gore and Edwards), perhaps?

One thing is for certain, I wouldnt want to trade places with any of the folks of the Gang of 4 right now!

Cross posted on Smoke Signals.

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